Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Property values - a 10 year view

Now here's a brave woman.

Caroline McGhie, writing in the Daily Telegraph with a headline of "Property: The decade ahead".

There's some interesting stuff too, for example Mark Lawson of the buying solution says:

We will also see an increasing tendency to hide big spending rather than boast about it. "I believe more and more properties will be available privately – perhaps as much as 75 per cent compared to 25 per cent on-market, but vendors will want premium prices."

Then Ms McGhie says:

The runaway market of the decade is likely to be down on the farm, where Knight Frank predicts a 100 per cent increase in land values by 2015.

And, according to Bidwells:

We could see a 68 per cent rise in prices by 2018.

It's all absolute twaddle.

Analysts consistently fail to predict 6 months ahead let alone 120.  What we do know is that values will rise, fall,  then rise again with an overall upward Mark Twain said "buy land because it's the only thing they don't make anymore" (that was before Spangles and Bovril crisps of course).

When I first started my career in property back in the early '80's a very wise (and rich) developer told me that it's just like it says in the bible. You get seven years of famine followed by seven years of feast...the timescale may vary slightly but the general sentiment is spot on.

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