Wednesday, July 28, 2010

UK house prices to fall says National Institute of Economic Research

A report in today's Daily Telegraph highlights the thin ice that the UK economy and housing market is skating on.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that house prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent.

It means that after accounting for inflation, “real” house prices will have collapsed to 2003 levels by 2015.

Of course any kind of speculative forecasting like this is akin to a group of very intelligent people wetting their fingers and sticking them in the air to see which way the wind is currently blowing. Property forecasting is notoriously inaccurate.

What it could mean though is that people who have been hesitating over a move to France may well decide to take the leap. 

One of the things that concerned me before we came here in 2003 was that if we sold in England but wanted to go back after a couple of years how much more expensive housing would be.

Happily we have never looked back and with a "stagnant" UK property market maybe one or two others will now be tempted to do something similar without the fear of rampant house inflation to hold them back.

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