Global real estate - what’s next?

The greatest TV series of all time is The West Wing, don’t even bother disputing this in the comments section. In the fictional White House, President Bartlet famously says “what’s next” whenever he wants to move the conversation on.

This week has seen the property industry trying to do exactly this.

Savills, Knight Frank, CBRE and every property commentator on Twitter have been making predictions.  They want to move the conversation from “WTF” to “We know what’s happening and are in control”.

Of everything I’ve read (which is a lot, as I’m a sucker for punishment) Knight Frank were the most bullish....prices going up in Central London, farmland resilient, 4.5% growth in GDP next year and more. Read yesterday’s daily summary here.

https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/research/article/2020-04-07-your-morning-market-update-from-knight-frank-research-tuesday-7th-april

I get that a) research departments want to show their bosses that they are busy and b) these reports generate column inches, but come on.

We have no idea what the social, political or economic impact of this pandemic will be. People talk about the 1918 flu pandemic (heaven forbid this gets that bad) but it’s well documented that it was the “second wave” that caused the majority of deaths. We’re still on the upward part of the graph in the first wave here.

I’m not trying to be alarmist, just saying that all of these weighty “forecasts” should be taken with the Salar de Uyuni*. I do also understand that markets are about perception and that we should all be staying positive, but let’s just be realistic too. The French economy reduced by 6% in Q1 and will fall by a further 1.5% every 15 days of confinement (source Bank of France, 08/04/20).

Nobody knows what’s next, it’s way too early to tell. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

On a micro scale, our company is seeing record visits to our website and we’re still getting high levels of enquiries by phone and email. The French property market has been hot these last two years (1.1m sales registered last year) and UK buyers have been rushing to “get in” before  31st December.  The underlying demand is super strong. Our hope is that we’ll be out of lockdown soon and we’re putting plans in place to keep clients and agents safe when viewings recommence.

But, if unemployment soars, if clients can’t get mortgages, if vaccines take longer than thought to develop, if....as a business we need to have contingency plans in place for these scenario’s too.

So, what I’m saying is, use these forecasts as emergency loo roll until the time that we know the peak has passed and that we come out of lockdown. Hopefully we won’t have long to wait.

Then, we can think about moving the conversation along and start making semi-sensible forecasts.

Meanwhile, stay safe, be compassionate and support our front line workers.

*biggest salt flats in the world, as I discovered on Race Across the World last week.

It’s been a while - a little drop of Coronavirus

So, a mate of mine in Australia asked why I didn’t take up the blog again during this exceptional period in our lives.  Challenge accepted Tracy.

A fair bit has changed in the last seven years. I’ve got a proper job, my two little girls have (rather surprisingly) metamorphosed into young ladies and the world is in the grip of a pandemic and in a pretty much global lockdown. Well, apart from Belarus, where they are still playing football in front of capacity crowds. President Lukashenko reckons that vodka and saunas will keep the virus at bay. Let’s hope that Fox News don’t cover the story.

In the last 18 months I’ve had heart problems, a pacemaker fitted, skin cancer and, in December, aggressive prostate cancer, leading to a radical prostatectomy, Despite all this I feel physically fit - I rode 100km’s on the indoor trainer yesterday, which is some going seeing as I was only allowed to start cycling again three weeks ago.

What’s changed (and it’s not easy to say this) is my mental strength.  Even after the pacemaker and the skin cancer I felt indestructible. However, the two nights in intensive care, after the prostate surgery, put paid to that. I suddenly felt mortal and it was sobering. I’m lucky to have Juli-Anne by my side and her shining light lit up the darkest moments. I don’t even want to think about what it would have been like without her.

I didn’t lose my positive attitude to life - I gave myself all kinds of goals and I’ve been smashing them out of the park.

But....and it’s a big “but”....I suddenly find myself feeling nervous. I really don’t want to catch this damn virus. One of the symptoms that led the doc to discovering my heart problem was “breathlessness” and I‘m struggling to come to terms with the fact that I’ve moved from indestructible to vulnerable.

So, current situation - family safe, well and, thankfully, at home. We’ve been in lockdown for two weeks with a minimum of two weeks more, although I suspect it will be longer. No complaints; cupboards are full, we’ve had beautiful weather, books take a second to download and the girls are baking every day. J-A is helping the local nurses collect masks, aprons and other necessities. I’m riding on Zwift every day with pa-in-law and one of my best mates in England and tai-chi every morning has been a revelation.

That’s enough for now, it’s all been a bit personal but will try and make it more interesting over the coming days. There’s certainly plenty to talk about!

Life in the Charente - it's payback time

Some of you may know that I have an annual golf outing with three friends and we have been playing together since we were 17 years old.

Now, without wishing to appear boastful, it's relevant to this little tale that I'm better than any of them.

Far better.

I was a single figure golfer as a kid and if you go to the Drift Golf Club in Surrey you'll see the Downie name scattered around quite liberally in the trophy room.

My three chums were all cricketers and over the years have suffered from various ailments including hooking, slicing, topping and shanking.

We.ve played some fab courses together though - from Druids Glen to Paris National I've boomed one down the first only to try and pretend I'm not with them as they amuse the gathered audience with a collection of airshots, slices into the next county and even (I swear this is true) a shot that ended up thirty yards behind the tee.  How much did I enjoy saying "It's still you Steve"?

Better still we always play a few rounds of Greensomes which is where you take alternate shots. Usually my partner gets to play from 300 yards down the middle but woe betide if I hit a duff drive and have to take my partners tee shot.  I've played from the ladies tee on many an occasion as well as out of bushes, bunkers, ditches and adjacent fairways....all the time with people passing by and smirking, thinking what a duffer I must be.

I've suffered in silence because that's what you do for friends.

Well, it's payback time.  Golf is my past but cycling is my future....more accurately cycling with my father-in-law is my future.

You see we've entered a 20km, two man, time trial in October - the "Duo Jarnacaise".

You might see where this is going.  Pa-in-law is not just a good cyclist, he's a very good cyclist indeed.  He's been cycling all his life and has conquered the Ventoux, the Tourmalet and any other European mountain worthy of the name.

He has legs of oak, lungs that could power a steam train and a competitive spirit that makes Sir Alex Ferguson look like a politically correct junior school coach.

We cycled out to look at the circuit today and had a trial ride round.

It didn't go well.

Pa-in-law had this crackpot idea that we'd be taking it in turns to shield the other from the wind and that this was some sort of team event.  Not so - we'll go fastest if he drags me around behind him but we'll still be way slower than if he was doing it by himself.

At the end of our practice I was wheezing, panting, dead on my saddle but generally pretty pleased with myself.

Now, I get on like a house on fire with "beau pere" - he's more than family and is one of my best friends on the planet. So I could tell he wasn't happy.

Our ride home started with some chuntering.  Words like "humiliation" and "disgrace"started being bandied about and soon developed into "knew you were a wrong 'un" and "I'd be better off doing it with your mother-in-law".

Haha....I've been waiting 35 years for this....you just have to take it on the chin Dave.  I know what it feels like to be dragged down but as Mahatma Gandhi said "The law of sacrifice is uniform throughout the world".

If anyone wants to come and cheer us on, the Duo Jarnacais team time trial takes place on Sunday 6th October.

I'll be the one sheltering behind the chap with a look of anguish on his face and his cap pulled down low :-)

www.cognacproperty.com

Cycling in the Charente

OK, I know that we don't have the dramatic scenery to match the Alps & Pyrenees.  Come to the Charente and you won't be faced with the horrors & challenges of Alpe d'Huez, Mont Ventoux or the Col du Tourmalet.

However, I genuinely think that cyclists of all standards will be thrilled if they bring their bikes & obligatory lycra to the sunny Charente.

For once I remembered to take my camera out with me yesterday in the early evening and took a couple of snaps to show what I mean.

This first one is of the bridge at Juac.  It is one of many that criss-cross the river between Jarnac and Chateauneuf.  Although we went "off piste" yesterday, our regular lunchtime route is a 30km circuit that starts in St Meme and goes through Saintonge, Graves, Vibrac, St Simon, Juac, Bassac, Jarnac, Gondeville and back home.

My second pic was taken when we deviated from this route and climbed the short hill to Moulidars.

This small lane actually runs in front of a house that I bought for a client a few years ago, it's an idyllic spot.  There's an equally nice view the other side of the hill that yesterday was looking down over dazzling sunflowers & the ubiquitous vines.

The juxtaposition of the two with the greens & yellows sparkling in the evening sun was truly spectacular but sadly I was hurtling downhill at the time and didn't have the legs to cycle back up to capture the moment.

You'll just have to take my word for it!

www.cognacproperty.com

The Poitou Charentes playlist

Was out working this morning - driving through the vines, in the Charentaise sunshine, with the windows down and the music turned up maybe a notch too loud.

It made me grateful to be alive and so, so glad that we took that leap of faith ten years ago and made the move to France.

The two albums I was listening to are en vogue in our household as it's two artists we have seen perform live recently.

The first - Passenger - we saw in Paris at Le Trianon and he was superb. Here's a little taster of my favourite song taken from a time before he hit the charts.

The second album was that of a busker we saw in Covent garden recently called Sammy Jay. She hasn't quite hit the big time yet but perhaps one day she will (don't forget that my youngest spotted Ed Sheeran way before he became famous and has a knack for these things).  Here she is singing Price Tag.

Perhaps you won't like these young artists as much as me or maybe they're like the local "vin de pays" which needs to be drunk on a summers evening on the vineyard where the grapes were grown....but then again perhaps you will - and you'll understand why I was driving along with a huge smile on my face this morning :-)

www.cognacproperty.com

Poitou Charentes - flavour of the month with international buyers

More on the 5th annual "Investing & Living Abroad" survey by BNP Paribas International Buyers.

It was interesting (but not all surprising) to see that every single region in France saw the number of international property buyers decrease in 2012.

Except one.

Poitou Charentes.

Yup, sleepy old Poitou Charentes, with it's low property prices, glorious beaches, rolling hills covered in sunclad vineyards and friendly, old fashioned, locals.

Here in paradise we actually saw a 4% increase in the number of sales to international buyers who spent an average of €145,000.

78% of these buyers were from the UK, 13% from Belgium, 5% from Holland and 4% from Germany.

Who knows what the reason is?  Perhaps it's the micro climate that makes it the second sunniest area of France (well not all of the region but certainly the arc between La Rochelle and Angouleme), or maybe it's the attraction of Cognac itself which has seen sales of the amber nectar boom over the last few years.

Whatever - they say that in troubled times it's the prime areas that fare best and I'd say that this is certainly true in this case.  All those smart buyers are probably sat by the pool in their old, Charentaise, stone houses, with views over the vineyards, as I write this.

If they used me to help them buy it then they'll probably also be feeling quite smug about the price they paid :-)

www.cognacproperty.com

French property sales to international buyers becalmed

The 5th annual "Investing & Living Abroad" survey by BNP Paribas International Buyers came out earlier this month.

For those of us who earn a living working with international buyers they make pretty gloomy reading but there are one or two silver linings if you look hard enough.

The headline figure is that house sales in France to "non resident" purchasers dropped by 29% to 10,663 (from 15,073).  There is no getting away from the fact that it's a tough market and until consumer confidence returns many people will keep their hands in their pockets rather than splash out on a home in France.

However, there are a couple of points worth highlighting.

Firstly, those canny buyers taking advantage of the lower prices are spending more - on average €384,000 which is a €64,000 leap over the figure two years previously.

Secondly, these tend to be astute cash buyers, with only 20% of them requiring a mortgage.

Finally, we were shown the figures (which I have forgotten sadly) of UK expats who have sold but moved within France (ie moved to the next village along).  I remember thinking that this figure was pretty high - not far short of the number of buyers from the UK.  This flies in the face of all the headlines of "Brits fleeing France back to the UK".

Anecdotally, I know far more expats who have sold and moved within France than expats who have returned "home".  These figures never get reported and I'm glad that BNP Paribas included it in their research.

I do firmly believe that there is a pent up demand and that once confidence returns we will see a big influx of international buyers again.  Time will tell.

www.cognacproperty.com

Property bargains to be had in the Charente

I have just finished showing clients round a selection of properties in the Charente valley, including the magnificent house shown above which is in a prime location right by Cognac golf course.

We really did see some terrific houses - the weather wasn't kind which was most unusual in June but even with leaden grey skies my clients commented on the natural beauty of the shortlist we had put together.

As 2013 progresses it's becoming clearer that many owners see no sign of respite to the "crise financiere" and are willing to accept offers so that they can move on with their life.  This can only be good for the market as the gap between vendors & buyers expectations closes.

Whether it's stood outside the school gates, over dinner with friends or chatting with local agents & notaires I'm constantly hearing tales of houses being sold at well below "sticker price" - at all price levels.

Combine this with the ridiculously cheap cost of borrowing and the time could be right for picking up a property that has both long term capital growth potential and sheer natural beauty.

The houses we visited this week ranged from around €350-500,000 and I'd say that they would sit comfortably alongside any portfolio of country houses that are being offered by my old employers such as Savills, Jackson-Stops & Staff and Chestertons.

Just make sure you do your homework and work with someone who knows the local market intimately - that way you'll be able to negotiate hard and secure a bargain of your own.

www.cognacproperty.com

Property world embraces pedal power

It's pretty clear from my Twitter timeline that the property industry is really embracing the cycling revolution.

Admirably led by the Estates Gazette and their iconic deputy editor @samanthamcclary the major agents, developers, investors and assorted hangers on are all donning their lycra.

The annual Cycle 2 Cannes ride has raised over £1 million pounds for property related charities and is supported by Savills, CBRE, DTZ and other worthies.  It's a ride that I'd love to get involved in and best of all I could cheat and join them halfway down France!

Today sees the start of a female only ride from London to Paris and, again, sees the property industry doing its bit for charity. They are riding 100 miles a day and you can follow them at @PedElle

All of this has driven me to buy myself a new bike to use when I'm seeing local agents or going to take a look around houses close to me.

If it works then I'm buying a tandem to take clients on - the first "eco-friendly" buying agent that not only finds you a house but offers personal training at the same time....now that really is worthy of the word unique that we property folk like so much.

With Chris Froome looking good for Le Tour in a few weeks this cycling boom looks set to continue.  I was contacted by a TV production company yesterday who were quizzing me on cycling in the Charente - sadly I have a face for radio so don't expect to see me on your TV's any time soon but I'm sure that it would make a great feature.  Vine clad hillsides, ancient stone bridges spanning the prettiest stretch of river in France and a cycle friendly culture...what's not to like!

www.cognacproperty.com

Cycling in the Charente

I have had a few people ask if I could expand on my cycling experiences following my post about joining the Velo Club de Jarnac.

As you may know I joined the cycling club during the winter and was a little apprehensive about a) my ability, b) riding in a group and c) my bike.

Well, it turns out that my fears were unfounded and I've really enjoyed being a member of the "poissons rouge" as they are known.

We went out on each Sunday morning throughout the winter and there would usually be 20-30 of us.  We would set off as a group and then after half an hour or so the peloton would split into two with the "racers" (cyclosportifs) going off the front and the "non racers" (cyclotouristes) dropping behind.

I would do my best to stay with the racers and usually managed to do so - simply because the season hadn't started and we were going on flat courses and they were taking it easy.  I have a hybrid bike rather than a road bike which didn't help and a couple of times I found myself drafting behind the support car to take a bit of a rest.

Once the season began the racers would go off each week-end to compete and I have been seeking out local events for each Sunday morning.  We tend to choose the longest routes of between 80-90 km's and these have been a great way of seeing areas & roads you wouldn't normally visit. Some of the scenery around Angouleme can be spectacular and I particularly loved the event that rode through my own village!

We tend to check in at 8.00am and this is a chance to meet riders from other clubs.  The ride itself tends to take around three hours and we don't stop at the "casse croute" or halfway house where the local club will offer coffee, cake and usually a glass of red!

Sometimes we'll join forces with riders of a similar standard from other clubs but the one thing each ride in common has is that I struggle on the hills - the course around Blanzac was particularly tough as it took in the rolling hills and valleys of southern Charente.

This Sunday we're going to Royan & back which will be flatter and is a round trip of 180 km's - by far the longest ride I have ever taken on.  Who knows if we'll make it but I'm really looking forward to it as it will take us through some lovely towns like Pons, Gemozac and Cozes as well as perhaps enjoying an ice cream on the beach in Royan itself.

For any keen cyclists who want a bit of technical info I ride a flat bar Boardman Hybrid Comp and usually average around 28/29 km/h when riding alone.  When in a group this rises to well over 30 km/h.  The club runs with the non racers usually average out at around 25 km/h so are fairly leisurely.  The fact I ride a flat barred bike causes interest with my fellow poissons rouges but there's certainly no snobbery in the club.  They do have some fantastic machines though and it's a little like having a beaten up Peugeot in a garage full of Ferraris.

If you're thinking of cycling in the Charente and want some advice on routes (long or short) then please just ask - my favourite is still the 28 km circuit that follows the river and takes in Bassac, Vibrac, Jarnac and the beautiful bridges and locks that make this area so special.

So what's going on with the Charente property market?

I'm fed up of reading stories in the press about French house prices.

Market commentators tend to speak in such generalisations that the conversations are meaningless.  It's the same in the UK of course - try telling someone in Burnley that their market bears any relation at all to that of London & the south east.

So if the notaires or FNAIM feel that prices are going to fall by between 2-5% this year then good for them.

What is of far more importance to my clients and I is the gap between "sticker price" (what you'll see a house for in an agents window) and "selling price" (what it actually sells for).  Other than keeping your ear to the ground and relying on local gossip then these stats are impossible to come by.

I'm not going to give away any client secrets here but certainly the deals we have been striking have seen a pretty big gap between the two.  Indeed I wrote an article on pretty much this subject in the last issue of FrenchEntrée magazine.  I have copied the article below in its entirety as I think it's an important issue....far more important than whether prices across the country have gone up or down a point or two!

Mind the gap....

 

Oh the memories.....for over twenty years I had to put up with the commute into central London from my suburban house in Surrey.  I'd catch the 7.06am train before jumping onto the tube at Waterloo, then whilst at Savills I'd get off at Green Park and whilst with Chesterton I'd get off at Oxford Circus.  From waiting around in the freezing cold for trains that never came to being jammed into an underground carriage in the heat of summer I have plenty of memories to keep me going whilst I laze around in the Charente sunshine.

 

One phrase stands out above all, every morning I would be popped out of the crowded carriage and be greeted with "please mind the gap".

 

I hadn't heard these words for a long time but this year they seem to be a daily occurence again....just used in a different context.

 

You see 2013 is going to be another difficult year for the French property market.  When I moved to France around 10 years ago there were around 850,000 property sales pa, last year there were around 650,000. Michel Mouillart, the Head of Economics at the Paris-Nanterre University, was quoted recently as saying that around 3,000 estate agencies have had to shut up shop with 10,000 agents losing their jobs.

 

Of course the current economic woes aren't just confined to the French market, indeed it remains one of the most robust in Europe and we should be grateful that we've had what analysts like to call a "slight correction" rather than the decimation seen in say Ireland or Spain.

 

My point though is that it's a buyers market and investors with cash in their pocket know it.

 

This leads me back to "mind the gap" - you see there is now a definite gap between what vendors think their properties are worth and what buyers are prepared to pay for it.  This gap is the main reason for falling transaction numbers and until it is closed we will continue to see a flat market. 

 

Those people selling their homes in 2013 will be the ones who have priced their houses realistically.  They in turn will then probably become a buyer themselves and will find themselves in a position of strength.  The old mentality of "well, we paid €200,000 then spent another €50,000 so we'll put it on the market for €300,000 as you always make money when you sell houses" simply won't wash.

 

If this is your thinking then I'm afraid you're going to have a long wait before selling it unless you are extremely lucky or bought it at a particularly bargain price.....and don't forget that we all think we are getting a bargain when we buy a house but the reality can often be different in a country where getting comparable evidence on house prices can be so difficult.

 

As a buying agent I'm mandated by international buyers to find them a house and then to negotiate the lowest possible price.  It used to be that I would be holding clients back when it came to the purchase price but it's noticeable now that when issuing the mandate they all tell me that they have no intention of paying "window price" and that we will be using my research to strike a hard bargain.

 

Mind the gap!

FNCI - the national federation for buying agents in France

As clients will know I (and the rest of my colleagues within the FrenchEntrée Property Finders network) am a member of the FNCI - the National Fédération of Chasseurs Immobiliers, literally "house hunters".

Having a federation like this is the same concept as traditional agents who belong to the FNAIM which is their national body and well respected throughout France.

The FNCI lobbies Government on behalf of its members and has a quality charter that all members agree to abide by.  Membership comes in handy when describing the role of a buying agent to vendors and local immobiliers as it's a new concept to many of them.

The FNCI have just launched a new website which features the first of a series of videos about looking for a flat or house without the help of a buying agent (above).  It's in French of course but even if you're not fluent you will probably get the gist and see the humour.

Most bodies like this are quite stuffy and staffed by bureaucrats.....I'm happy to say that the FNCI are just the opposite and they are a friendly, professional and forward thinking bunch.  Paying my dues is one of the few cheques I write each year that I don't begrudge.

They must be good!

www.cognacproperty.com

Finding a riverside property in the Charente

The Charente was the "finest stream in the kingdom" of Henry IV and anyone who knows the river will surely back up this fabulous claim.

It's no wonder that I seem to be constantly looking for riverside properties on behalf of clients.  My latest search is for a lovely couple from the West Country in the UK who are looking for an old water-mill to renovate.

The bad news is that I'm struggling to find anything special.  There's plenty of property that has been reduced in price and there's plenty that I have no doubt would be open to offers....but I'm still to find anything that sets my heart soaring.

I'm hoping that this lack of good stock is either a) a blip or b) because my search is limited to water mills - but I fear that 2013 might be the year that international buyers come back to France only to be thwarted in their efforts because new sellers aren't coming to the market.

Sounds strange doesn't it considering that we're still in the midst of a crise financiere, perhaps many vendors are waiting for the Spring and I'm worrying for no reason.

It hasn't been for the want of trying I can assure you - the market is being well and truly scoured from the biggest of agents to small one man bands and from notice boards in the local notaires to the private sale websites and freesheets.

The good news is that my clients aren't out for a few weeks yet so there's still time for me to put a decent short-list together.

Anyway, watch this space for an update throughout the year....I'm confident that I will be active on behalf of cash buyers but will we be able to meet their needs?

Time will tell.

www.cognacproperty.com

Jarnac Cycling Club (Velo Club de Jarnac)

Following my post about integrating into the local community I thought it would be good to share my experience of joining the local cycling club.  If you're only interested in property related posts then turn away now.

Regular readers will know that I had a kind of epiphany before my 50th birthday last year and decided to get fitter and undertake a bit of a bike ride.  Getting up from the couch felt great and I have tried to stay active and keep cycling ever since.

I don't want to mislead you....I've never been particularly sporting and you don't shed thirty years of inactivity overnight.  I'm not going to be entering races but I do fancy riding regularly so I have joined Les Poissons Rouge which is the name of the Jarnac cycling club.

Bizarrely, there is no entry fee, nor annual subscription.  You do however need to pay €50 pa for your licence & insurances and you need a doctors certificate to say that you're in reasonable shape.  You're also encouraged to purchase some items of team kit so that the team looks good when out on a club ride.

It's a friendly club with an excellent local reputation.  There are around 60 members and the Patron is a professional cyclist called Lloyd Mondory who rides for AG2R.  He's from the area and his parents are members - each year he'll come back for a ride or two and I'm particularly looking forward to sharing the peloton with a guy who rides the Tour de France each year.

This week-end I went out for my first ever group ride which was quite a nerve racking experience.  I had no idea how fast they would go or what the etiquette is for riding in a bunch.  Would I be dropped after 500 metres and left to turn around and trudge home by myself?  Unlikely as my father-in-law (who devoted all of 2011 getting me up the Col du Tourmalet) was there too but he takes these rides seriously and you never know!

We met in Jarnac town centre, opposite the imposing Courvoisier chateau.  There were about twenty people there and they're a friendly bunch.  It was sunny & mild so I was bare-legged with no wind jacket.....this caused a mixture of hilarity & consternation as everyone else was wrapped up like polar explorers.  I was also the only person who didn't have a drop handlebar road bike (I ride a Boardman Hybrid Comp as I find it more comfortable and didn't need a second mortgage to buy it) but no-one seemed to give two hoots.

Off we went and it took me twenty minutes or so to get used to the hand gestures and general movement in a group.  Wind resistance is much reduced and you ride 20-30% faster than when on your own.

We cycled for around two and a half hours and the truth is that it was a breeze.  I struggled up the hills because I'm big & heavy but I didn't get dropped and I loved every minute.  I didn't time it but suspect we were averaging around 28-30 kmh and people were chatting throughout.

Whether you are contemplating expat life or are an established expat already I'd heartily recommend joining a club like this and I wish I'd done it sooner. You don't need to be ultra fit either, my friend Paddy joined Jarnac chess team as soon as he arrived here and was soon jetting all over Poitou Charentes for club matches.

As we were riding round, one of the regulars said he liked the fact that my father-in-law and I give the club an international flavour and that they have a Spanish chap join them from June each year.

Wonder if his name is Alberto something......

www.cognacproperty.com

Dismal failure of the Norman Tebbitt "cricket test"

I took my youngest through to Cognac last night for one of her bi-weekly gym practice sessions.

If there's a competition she's proud to wear the club colours but last night had a leotard with a sparkly union flag on the front.

It got me thinking back to 1990 and the infamous "cricket test" suggested by the Tory MP Norman Tebbitt.  He said that those immigrants who root for their native countries rather than the England cricket team lacked loyalty to their new country.

He'd have a fit at some of the things the Downie family get up to but I'd argue strongly that we have integrated well and are a positive force in both local and national life.

Let's start with the "well integrated" bit:

• we all speak the language (albeit in my case with a horrible accent & plenty of mistakes in my conjugation). Indeed, both daughters are within the top 5% of their class in French.
• we pay our taxes - 19.6% TVA on all our sales, income tax, professional tax, taxe d'habitation, taxe fonciere and, of course, the huge social charges to pay for the famously good healthcare, schooling et al.
• we do our bit for the community. Whether it's being a member of the PTA, taking the local school children on field trips or simply frequenting the local bars and restaurants. My proudest moments in France have been when the girls have been chosen to read out the names of fallen soldiers at memorial services.
• every year we help out with the grape picking at our mates vineyard. It's been in his family for generations and it's the highlight of the year.
• we have oodles of other friends locally.  We go to them for dinner or they come to us.  We stopped being "La Famille Anglaise" years ago and are now simply "Les Downies".

Now for the bit that would make Mr Tebbitt choke on his fish & chips:

• I read L'Equipe every day but it's the only French paper I like.  For news other than sport I'll go online to the Guardian, Telegraph or London Standard.
• The only French TV we watch nowadays is the weather and the football on Canal Plus.
• I'm joining the local Jarnac cycling club.  I'll happily wear the club kit on our Saturday club runs but the rest of the week I'll be in my Team Sky jerseys.  This July I'll be cheering on Wiggins & Froome not Thomas Voeckler & Pierre Rolland.
• During the 6 nations I'll invite my French friends round as usual.  But they'll have to enter through a swathe of Union Flags and drink pints of English beer....strangely this never seems to be a problem for them.  They give it to me in spades if France win and they get it back if Les Rosbifs triumph.

I suspect you get my point.  France is my second favourite rugby team, Bordeaux are my second favourite football team and if a Brit doesn't win Le Tour then I hope a french cyclist does.

I don't think that makes me disloyal to France, I just think it makes me loyal to the country of my birth. 

That's as far as I'd got before the gym session ended and it was time to head home for supper.

French onion soup :-)

www.cognacproperty.com

French property market 2012 and prospects for 2013

It's that time of year again - industry folk look back over the last 12 months and make predictions for 2013.

The former is relatively easy but the latter is simply a case of wetting your finger and sticking it in the wind....who knows what will happen to the European economy, the euro itself or the effects of the changes and austerity measures being introduced by our new President.

Let's start with 2012.

On a macro level it looks as though the overall number of French property sales will be around 650,000 which is quite a drop on the 790,000 we saw in 2011.  The market definitely slowed in 2012 and despite the many front page headlines talking about soaring prices in Paris and on the Cote d'Azur I'm dubious that any region is currently showing price growth. 

Latest research from the Notaires de France says that some areas buck the trend and they quote Limoges as seeing a 7% rise, Toulouse an increase of 4.5% and Lille rises of 2.9%.....don't forget though that these figures are already well out of date and I'd take them with a healthy pinch of salt.

Closer to home I'm certainly seeing plenty of local agents dropping prices from what were pretty optimistic levels.  I'm not saying that prices are in freefall or anything dramatic like that but it seems to me that a) only properties in the best locations are selling and b) they have to be priced realistically to do so.

Forecasting anything for 2013 is pretty much a lottery and my family & friends all know that my ability at tipping stocks, shares or the winner of the X Factor is dire.

However, I'd be surprised if transaction numbers for 2013 weren't between the 600-650,000 range, ie showing another slight decrease and another tough year for those of us who earn our money in this arena.

I'm not going to forecast anything to do with prices as the conflicting figures we are presented by the notaires, FNAIM, INSEE and others are meaningless.

What I will say though is that I don't think we'll see many areas being touted as having rises or falls of more than a few percent.  I sense a pretty flat market which, given what is going on in the rest of the world, may not be a bad thing.

As I have said before, international buyers come to France for a mixture of reasons - around 40,000 of them bought in France last year and I'd predict that this number won't change much either way this year.  The sunshine, great food, world class wine and welcoming culture are happily pretty much recession proof!

www.cognacproperty.com

Ed Sheeran plays Little Things at Le Trianon, Paris

One of the great things about living just outside Cognac is the access to live music.

Many of the bars & restaurants have live acts at the week-end and, of course, there's the famous Blues Festival each summer - this year Tom Jones & Sting were the headline acts.

Sometimes you have to go further afield though and having seen Bruno Mars in Nantes we found ourselves in Paris last week-end.

More specifically we were at a terrific venue called Le Trianon in Montmartre. It's a sumptuous theatre and, best of all, it holds just 1,500 people.

The queues for Ed Sheeran began first thing in the morning and the doors didn't open until 7.30pm. We got there an hour early and joined the back of a snaking line.

The theatre was spectacular and intimate - the warm up act "Passenger" set the crowd alight and couldn't stop commenting on how good it was to be so close to the audience.

This theme continued when Ed Sheeran took to the stage. He was in a good mood as the song "Little things" which he had written when he was just 17 and recently given to One Direction had gone to number one in the UK that day. He was proud that it was his first number one and said that he was never going to sing it again as it now belonged to another act.

However.....he asked if he could sing it one last time. Better than that, he liked the intimate atmosphere so much he wanted to strip it back and use just his guitar and his voice....no microphones.

He asked the crowd for absolute silence and the next few minutes made the hairs stand up on the arms of all 1,500 people who were there to witness it. Spellbinding.

You can get a taster from the video above (not mine, pinched from You Tube) but I guess you really had to be there.

Who knows, maybe he'll headline the 2013 Cognac Blues Passions.....

www.cognacproperty.com

A day in the life, or a life in the day....

When I meet new people the two questions that I'm most often asked are "What's it like living in France" and "What do you do for a living"?

I thought that I'd try and answer both questions in a single post by taking you through a typical day (if there is such a thing).

Morning - up early and in the office to answer emails that came in through the night (I'm trying to get a business off the ground with some brokers in Florida and they are six hours behind and tend to mail me in the wee small hours) and to plan my day.

Quick break at 8.10am as it's my turn for the school run and I pack assorted children - some mine - into the car and weave my way through the tractors and grape pickers.

Then it's off to Cognac and environs for some house viewings.  I'm mandated by some UK clients who are looking for a mill or waterside property and I have three properties to see this morning.  Two are hopeless but one could well make the shortlist.

Time for lunch and I stay in Cognac and make an unannounced visit to one of my favourite agents - he happens to be free so we grab a quick "plat de jour" on the main square.  Place Francois Premiere in the centre of Cognac is always full of tourists and today is no exception.  It's also good to see that the hotel on the square has opened again after the refurbishment.  You can get a feel of how good it looks now by seeing it here.

Afternoon - back to the office after lunch to call a notaire.  I have clients buying a house with three lakes - unfortunately the state only has knowledge of one of them so the red tape has become somewhat entangled.  The upshot is that my clients will rent the property for a few months while the paperwork is sorted - not ideal for either party and a potential minefield but probably the best solution.

Then it's on to a new experience for me.  I have clients in Dubai who have been looking to buy a house I found for them at auction.  It's proving difficult as the lawyer handling the sale wasn't too pleased to give us access to see it in the first place (and only did so because I kicked up a fuss) and now doesn't want to let a surveyor in to give his opinion until the official viewing programme starts.  As this is just a few days before the auction itself it doesn't leave much time for making decisions and arranging finance.

I speak to surveyor, avocat and huissier (who has the keys) and wonder why I ever came to this country with it's archaic property processes!

The end of the day is spent working with some of my colleagues in the FrenchEntrée Property Finders network.  This is a collection of buying agents spread across France and I'm a part owner in the business which follows my business model of acting exclusively for the buyer.

The guys at Brittany Gems have just tied up a really nice purchase for some clients and Stephen calls to update me.  He's thrilled - but not as delighted as his client who thanks him for "the most amazing support, you have achieved the practically impossible, given my dream list".

That's pretty much it for the day but I just have time to press "send" on my latest article to the editor of FrenchEntrée magazine.  Hope you like it Justin!

www.cognacproperty.com

Vendange time in the Charente

It's that time of year again.

The school run takes five minutes longer, the roads on my Sunday cycle rides are covered in mud and squashed grapes and most of my French friends are working seven days a week from dusk until dawn.

The sleepy old Charente comes to life at this time of year and I love it.  I was going to make this post about the grape picking process but my friend and near neighbour Andy has done it a million times better than I could in this post. (I have taken the liberty....again....of pinching one of his pics as you will see if you visit his excellent blog "Prunings from the Vines").

Instead I'll give you a little insight into the Cognac Property business empire.

Successful corporates understand the need to make work fun and motivate employees.

Google has a "play" area in its offices to aid creativity among staff.  My lifelong buddy Tim is COO of a big ad agency and has a table football area for use by clients and staff which helps stimulate the creative juices.

I have my "chemin blanc".

You see, most lunch times I take Paxton the black lab out for a walk in the vines and we invariably end up on the same rough track which wends its way back to my garden.  Usually it's deserted and allows me to prioritise work, get my thoughts in order and plan my business.

This week we're sharing the vines with huge machines straight out of War of the Worlds and my attention is diverted.  It's a small price to pay though - Paxton and I take our time and watch as the workers pick the grapes, transfer them onto a trailer, hook them on the tractor then hurry back to the Chai before they get spoilt.

It's a process made all the sweeter in the knowledge that aforementioned friends will undoubtedly be inviting me to birthdays, christenings, weddings and simple dinner parties where I will get to sample the fruits of their labour.

Sweet.

www.cognacproperty.com

French property market report - Summer 2012

Regular readers of this blog will know that there is a real shortgage of information about the French property market when compared to say the UK, USA or Australia.

However, the Notaires de France do their best and a few weeks ago released some figures on the year to date.

It's clear from their figures that transaction numbers are dropping across the country including the previously untouchable Paris market.  They are forecasting a fall of around 15% in the number of sales for 2012 which would bring the total down to a little over 700,000.

They say that Paris will be badly hit but that the areas around Bordeaux, Nice, Toulouse, Lyon and Montpellier will be slightly cushioned.

These figures are total sales and not to be confused with the statistics issued by BNP Paribas which are focused on sales to international buyers only.

This is the third major downturn of my property career - each one seems to last forever when you are in the middle of it but, thankfully, each one has been followed by a dramatic upturn.  The property market is a cyclical one and I'm used to the fact that we seem to have "seven lean years followed by seven years of plenty".

What never seems to change is the bullishness of estate agents despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.  Oh for a euro for every time I hear that "our market is different and thriving" or  "prices in Paris/London/wherever will never fall"....hmmm.

I remember well attending a property conference in the early 1990's in central London - I was on the panel and one of the speakers was an extremely high profile Chief Exec of a huge, listed, property developer.  He gave a morale boosting, upbeat and most enjoyable speech talking about the number of sales they had and how the market was back on its feet.

When he had finished he sat back down and whispered "If anyone believes all that **** they need their head seeing to".

I was still a naive 30 year old and remember being devastated that he didn't truly believe what he had been saying.  It was one of many lessons I learned and I now know that it is part of the industry DNA to talk the market up.

My point is that property sales across France are falling and prices naturally fall with them.  If both sellers and agents recognise this (and price accordingly) then transaction numbers will remain comparatively healthy.  Price sensibly and there are still 700,000 buyers out there!

For info you can get the Notaires de France research here.

www.cognacproperty.com